Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-03-06 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 62.2%
CGY: 37.8%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.23
CGY: 2.49
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | DAL | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • DAL at home vs CGY: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | CGY 3 - 2 DAL | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-27 | CGY 2 - 5 DAL | DAL | CGY |
| 2025-03-06 | DAL 3 - 2 CGY | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-12-08 | DAL 6 - 2 CGY | DAL | DAL |
| 2023-11-30 | CGY 4 - 3 DAL | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:13 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 02:29 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 04:06 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 09:00 | DAL | Goal |
| 4 | 04:17 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.2 - 2.5