San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

COL: 71.3%

SJS: 28.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 5.27

SJS: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	34	31	3	91.2%	3.93	5	0.93
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	32	25	7	78.1%	5.19	5	-1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • COL at home vs SJS: 8-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	2	1.89
1	SJS	16	2	1.82
2	COL	24	2	2.44
2	SJS	8	1	0.54
3	COL	9	1	0.86
3	SJS	21	2	1.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 5.3 - 2.3