Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-07 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

VGK: 54.0%

PIT: 46.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.56

PIT: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	22	22	0	100.0%	1.91	0	1.91
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	27	23	4	85.2%	4.20	2	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	1	1.19
1	PIT	11	0	0.67
2	VGK	14	0	1.05
2	PIT	13	0	0.78
3	VGK	19	1	1.96
3	PIT	9	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7