Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-03-07 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 55.3%
PIT: 44.7%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.48
PIT: 2.38
Total Goals
Median: 4.7
Over 5.5: 39%
Over 6.5: 26%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | VGK | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PIT: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | VGK 6 - 2 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-03-01 | PIT 5 - 0 VGK | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-11 | PIT 3 - 2 VGK | PIT | VGK |
| 2025-03-07 | VGK 4 - 0 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-01-20 | VGK 3 - 2 PIT | VGK | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:58 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 04:38 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 02:00 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 02:54 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.5 - 2.4
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