Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 59.9%

BOS: 40.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.83

BOS: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs BOS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	0.91
1	BOS	9	0	0.36
2	TBL	10	0	0.50
2	BOS	15	0	0.70
3	TBL	18	1	1.02
3	BOS	14	2	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.8 - 2.7