Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 63.2%

BOS: 36.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.13

BOS: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	21	4	84.0%	2.47	2	-1.53
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	25	0	100.0%	2.43	2	2.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • TBL at home vs BOS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	0.91
1	BOS	9	0	0.36
2	TBL	10	0	0.50
2	BOS	15	0	0.70
3	TBL	18	1	1.02
3	BOS	14	2	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.5