Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-08 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 65.3%
BOS: 34.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.82
BOS: 2.70
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 46%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TBL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.853 | 0.891 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs BOS: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | TBL 6 - 5 BOS | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-13 | BOS 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-15 | BOS 2 - 6 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-08 | TBL 0 - 4 BOS | BOS | TBL |
| 2025-01-14 | BOS 6 - 2 TBL | BOS | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10:32 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 15:53 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 14:52 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 13:16 | BOS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 4 Boston Bruins
Expected: 2.8 - 2.7