Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

FLA: 57.5%

BUF: 42.5%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.72

BUF: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

FLA

Vitek Vanecek - 5-14-4 | 0.884 SV% | 3.62 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Vitek Vanecek	21	21	0	100.0%	2.49	3	2.49
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	32	4	88.9%	4.84	5	0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • FLA at home vs BUF: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	1	1.09
1	BUF	13	1	0.79
2	FLA	17	1	1.53
2	BUF	19	2	1.27
3	FLA	18	3	2.23
3	BUF	7	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 0 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8