Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

CGY: 56.1%

MTL: 43.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.01

MTL: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • CGY at home vs MTL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.67
1	MTL	8	0	0.26
2	CGY	14	0	0.55
2	MTL	19	0	0.91
3	CGY	8	0	0.30
3	MTL	19	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 2.7