Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

EDM: 58.2%

DAL: 41.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.32

DAL: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	25	21	4	84.0%	3.59	2	-0.41
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	22	5	81.5%	3.16	2	-1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	1	1.23
1	DAL	12	1	1.20
2	EDM	9	0	0.50
2	DAL	13	0	0.73
3	EDM	12	1	1.43
3	DAL	16	1	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8