Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-08 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

EDM: 63.8%

DAL: 36.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.68

DAL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	1	1.23
1	DAL	12	1	1.20
2	EDM	9	0	0.50
2	DAL	13	0	0.73
3	EDM	12	1	1.43
3	DAL	16	1	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0