New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-09 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 53.7%

NJD: 46.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.05

NJD: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	23	20	3	87.0%	2.98	4	-0.02
NJD	Jake Allen	24	23	1	95.8%	1.55	1	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.37
1	NJD	9	0	0.43
2	PHI	12	1	0.68
2	NJD	15	3	1.57
3	PHI	14	0	0.50
3	NJD	10	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0