Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-03-09 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

MIN: 42.9%

PIT: 57.1%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.11

PIT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	22	19	3	86.4%	2.26	2	-0.74
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	29	1	96.7%	3.03	0	2.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	0	0.87
1	PIT	9	0	0.35
2	MIN	16	0	0.83
2	PIT	9	1	0.92
3	MIN	19	0	1.34
3	PIT	10	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2