Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-03-09 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 64.8%
LAK: 35.2%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.65
LAK: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
LAK
Darcy Kuemper - 14-11-9 | 0.900 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | VGK | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.866 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.917 | 0.889 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.27 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • VGK at home vs LAK: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | LAK 4 - 6 VGK | VGK | LAK |
| 2026-02-05 | VGK 4 - 1 LAK | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-01-14 | LAK 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | LAK |
| 2025-10-08 | VGK 5 - 6 LAK | LAK | VGK |
| 2025-03-09 | VGK 5 - 6 LAK | LAK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:22 | LAK | Goal |
| 1 | 18:29 | LAK | Goal |
| 2 | 01:56 | LAK | Goal |
| 2 | 05:00 | LAK | Goal |
| 2 | 09:47 | LAK | Goal |
| 2 | 18:51 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 04:02 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 08:28 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 10:57 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 11:33 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 17:48 | LAK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings
Expected: 3.6 - 3.1