Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2025-03-09 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 51.7%
DAL: 48.3%
Expected Goals
VAN: 2.72
DAL: 3.70
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | VAN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.885 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.793 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.833 | 0.944 |
| GAA | 3.41 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • VAN at home vs DAL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | VAN 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | VAN |
| 2025-10-16 | DAL 3 - 5 VAN | VAN | DAL |
| 2025-04-08 | DAL 5 - 6 VAN | VAN | DAL |
| 2025-03-09 | VAN 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | VAN |
| 2025-01-31 | DAL 5 - 3 VAN | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 05:17 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:35 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 19:34 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:26 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.7 - 3.7