Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-03-09 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 56.6%

DAL: 43.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.34

DAL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	19	15	4	78.9%	2.51	3	-1.49
DAL	Casey DeSmith	23	22	1	95.7%	2.93	2	1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • VAN at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.54
1	DAL	8	0	0.15
2	VAN	11	0	0.66
2	DAL	14	0	0.85
3	VAN	18	2	1.73
3	DAL	7	3	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3