Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions
2025-03-10 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
UTA: 61.4%
TOR: 38.6%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.29
TOR: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 27-15-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.61 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | UTA | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.897 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.950 | — |
| GAA | 2.68 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs TOR: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | UTA 6 - 1 TOR | UTA | UTA |
| 2025-11-05 | TOR 5 - 3 UTA | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-10 | UTA 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | UTA |
| 2024-11-24 | TOR 3 - 2 UTA | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:42 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:38 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:48 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:14 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:03 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 12:11 | UTA | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | UTA | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | UTA | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | UTA | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0