Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-03-10 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 61.1%

TOR: 38.9%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.25

TOR: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	24	5	82.8%	4.73	4	-0.27
TOR	Joseph Woll	36	32	4	88.9%	4.38	2	0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs TOR: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	UTA 6 - 1 TOR	UTA	UTA
2025-11-05	TOR 5 - 3 UTA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-10	UTA 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	UTA
2024-11-24	TOR 3 - 2 UTA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	8	1	0.57
1	TOR	15	1	1.19
2	UTA	22	0	1.53
2	TOR	12	0	0.49
3	UTA	16	0	0.49
3	TOR	5	1	0.62
4	UTA	7	0	0.72
4	TOR	5	0	0.48
5	UTA	3	1	1.07
5	TOR	3	2	1.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9