Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-11 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 63.4%

OTT: 36.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.39

OTT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	24	19	5	79.2%	3.43	2	-1.57
OTT	Anton Forsberg	22	20	2	90.9%	1.96	0	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs OTT: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.75
1	OTT	8	0	0.19
2	PHI	15	0	0.95
2	OTT	19	0	1.56
3	PHI	11	0	0.26
3	OTT	6	2	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1