Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-03-11 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 45.5%
VGK: 54.5%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.07
VGK: 3.29
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | PIT | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs VGK: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | VGK 6 - 2 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-03-01 | PIT 5 - 0 VGK | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-11 | PIT 3 - 2 VGK | PIT | VGK |
| 2025-03-07 | VGK 4 - 0 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-01-20 | VGK 3 - 2 PIT | VGK | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:48 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 03:02 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 14:29 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 4 | 00:49 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.1 - 3.3
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