Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-03-11 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 56.6%
VGK: 43.4%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.25
VGK: 2.96
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | PIT | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • PIT at home vs VGK: 2-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | PIT 3 - 2 VGK | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-07 | VGK 4 - 0 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-01-20 | VGK 3 - 2 PIT | VGK | VGK |
| 2023-11-19 | PIT 3 - 0 VGK | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:48 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 14:29 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 03:02 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 4 | 00:49 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0