Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions
2025-03-11 • Lenovo Center
Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CAR: 59.5%
TBL: 40.5%
Expected Goals
CAR: 2.90
TBL: 2.62
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 23-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.16 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | CAR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.915 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.818 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • CAR at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | CAR | ||
| 2025-12-20 | TBL 6 - 4 CAR | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-11 | CAR 4 - 1 TBL | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-01-07 | TBL 3 - 2 CAR | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-11 | CAR 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:29 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:15 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 12:56 | CAR | Goal |
| 3 | 06:26 | CAR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:38 | CAR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 2.6