Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions
2025-03-11 • Honda Center
Anaheim Ducks 4 - 7 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
ANA: 57.7%
WSH: 42.3%
Expected Goals
ANA: 3.12
WSH: 3.16
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
ANA
Lukas Dostal - 22-13-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.98 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | ANA | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 1.000 | 0.921 |
| GAA | 3.15 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs WSH: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | WSH 7 - 4 ANA | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-05 | ANA 4 - 3 WSH | ANA | ANA |
| 2025-03-11 | ANA 4 - 7 WSH | WSH | ANA |
| 2025-01-14 | WSH 3 - 0 ANA | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-01-16 | WSH 2 - 0 ANA | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:07 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 04:51 | ANA | Goal |
| 1 | 05:20 | ANA | Goal |
| 1 | 18:14 | ANA | Goal |
| 2 | 05:19 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 04:26 | ANA | Goal |
| 3 | 04:57 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 06:18 | ANA | Goal |
| 3 | 13:25 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:24 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:43 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Anaheim Ducks 4 - 7 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.1 - 3.2