Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-03-12 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 43.5%

BUF: 56.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 4.00

BUF: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

DET

P. Mrazek

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	P. Mrazek	26	23	3	88.5%	2.19	2	-0.81
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	22	7	75.9%	4.64	2	-2.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DET at home vs BUF: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	DET
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	BUF
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	1.16
1	BUF	12	1	0.87
2	DET	22	0	1.64
2	BUF	11	1	0.82
3	DET	16	2	1.84
3	BUF	11	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.0 - 3.0