Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-03-13 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 48.8%
TBL: 51.2%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.07
TBL: 3.21
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.914 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.950 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 14:20 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 00:15 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:55 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:01 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 03:50 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.1 - 3.2
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