Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-13 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PHI: 51.5%

TBL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.06

TBL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.43
1	TBL	10	0	0.53
2	PHI	14	0	1.14
2	TBL	14	2	1.25
3	PHI	20	1	1.16
3	TBL	8	0	0.54
4	PHI	3	0	0.11
4	TBL	4	0	0.29
5	PHI	5	2	1.95
5	TBL	5	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3