Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-13 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 49.9%

TBL: 50.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.18

TBL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	25	21	4	84.0%	3.66	3	-0.34
TBL	Jonas Johansson	32	27	5	84.4%	4.79	3	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.43
1	TBL	10	0	0.53
2	PHI	14	0	1.14
2	TBL	14	2	1.25
3	PHI	20	1	1.16
3	TBL	8	0	0.54
4	PHI	3	0	0.11
4	TBL	4	0	0.29
5	PHI	5	2	1.95
5	TBL	5	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2