St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 48.6%

STL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.11

STL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	35	32	3	91.4%	2.45	0	-0.55
STL	Jordan Binnington	22	17	5	77.3%	2.50	2	-2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs STL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	PIT
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	5	0	0.18
1	STL	21	0	1.10
2	PIT	16	0	0.65
2	STL	18	0	0.62
3	PIT	10	2	1.68
3	STL	11	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4