Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-03-13 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 0 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CBJ: 41.2%

VGK: 58.8%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.14

VGK: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	29	25	4	86.2%	3.07	1	-0.93
VGK	Adin Hill	27	27	0	100.0%	2.55	3	2.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CBJ at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	VGK 5 - 3 CBJ	VGK	VGK
2025-12-13	CBJ 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-13	CBJ 0 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-30	VGK 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	VGK
2024-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 CBJ	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	23	1	1.21
1	VGK	8	0	0.67
2	CBJ	8	1	0.66
2	VGK	11	0	0.83
3	CBJ	10	1	0.69
3	VGK	20	1	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 0 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1