Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-03-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

CGY: 28.7%

COL: 71.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.33

COL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 47%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	24	4	85.7%	3.08	1	-0.92
COL	Scott Wedgewood	24	22	2	91.7%	2.52	1	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • CGY at home vs COL: 0-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	6	0	0.23
1	COL	11	0	0.42
2	CGY	12	0	0.70
2	COL	19	0	1.21
3	CGY	23	1	1.59
3	COL	12	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.3 - 3.3