Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-03-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 52.1%
COL: 47.9%
Expected Goals
CGY: 2.61
COL: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | CGY | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs COL: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | COL 2 - 3 CGY | CGY | COL |
| 2025-03-14 | CGY 2 - 4 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2025-02-06 | CGY 2 - 4 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2024-03-12 | CGY 2 - 6 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2023-12-11 | COL 6 - 5 CGY | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:21 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:24 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:21 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:22 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:55 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:08 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.6 - 3.3