Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 55.2%

OTT: 44.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.48

OTT: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.44
1	OTT	15	0	0.35
2	TOR	9	0	0.66
2	OTT	13	1	0.78
3	TOR	21	1	1.48
3	OTT	12	2	2.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2