Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-16 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

NYR: 37.7%

EDM: 62.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.92

EDM: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	20	3	87.0%	2.24	1	-0.76
EDM	Stuart Skinner	22	21	1	95.5%	3.63	3	2.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs EDM: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-30	EDM 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	EDM
2025-10-14	NYR 0 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-16	NYR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-11-23	EDM 6 - 2 NYR	EDM	EDM
2023-12-22	NYR 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	10	0	0.61
1	EDM	13	0	0.86
2	NYR	11	2	1.34
2	EDM	9	0	0.49
3	NYR	17	1	1.67
3	EDM	14	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2