Florida Panthers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-16 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 2 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

NYI: 54.1%

FLA: 45.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.44

FLA: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

FLA

Vitek Vanecek - 5-14-4 | 0.884 SV% | 3.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	24	22	2	91.7%	4.00	5	2.00
FLA	Vitek Vanecek	34	30	4	88.2%	3.81	4	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NYI 5 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2026-03-01	NYI 5 - 4 FLA	NYI	FLA
2025-12-07	FLA 4 - 1 NYI	FLA	FLA
2025-03-16	NYI 4 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2025-02-02	FLA 6 - 3 NYI	FLA	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	18	1	1.29
1	FLA	4	0	0.06
2	NYI	15	0	0.74
2	FLA	14	1	1.57
3	NYI	13	3	1.78
3	FLA	22	4	2.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8