Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-03-17 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 50.2%

BUF: 49.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.19

BUF: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	30	27	3	90.0%	2.32	1	-0.68
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	20	18	2	90.0%	2.33	2	0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	2	1.42
1	BUF	12	0	0.60
2	BOS	8	0	0.51
2	BUF	12	0	0.58
3	BOS	5	0	0.26
3	BUF	10	1	0.55
4	BOS	2	0	0.14
4	BUF	8	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2