Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2025-03-17 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 51.4%
BUF: 48.6%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.02
BUF: 3.20
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 31-18-4 | 0.907 SV% | 2.71 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | BOS | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.955 | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | BUF 3 - 4 BOS | BOS | BUF |
| 2025-12-27 | BUF 4 - 1 BOS | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-30 | BOS 4 - 3 BUF | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-10-11 | BOS 3 - 1 BUF | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-04-06 | BUF 6 - 3 BOS | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:19 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 13:00 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 15:13 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 12:48 | BOS | Goal |
| 4 | 04:49 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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