Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TBL: 57.3%

PHI: 42.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.36

PHI: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.91
1	PHI	12	1	1.04
2	TBL	11	0	0.88
2	PHI	8	0	0.48
3	TBL	18	2	1.74
3	PHI	10	1	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9