Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TBL: 58.9%

PHI: 41.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.14

PHI: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	21	0	100.0%	2.09	2	2.09
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	23	21	2	91.3%	3.53	2	1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.91
1	PHI	12	1	1.04
2	TBL	11	0	0.88
2	PHI	8	0	0.48
3	TBL	18	2	1.74
3	PHI	10	1	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.6