Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-17 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.5%
PHI: 40.5%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.27
PHI: 2.35
Total Goals
Median: 3.7
Over 5.5: 28%
Over 6.5: 20%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.950 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:30 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 2.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.3 - 2.3
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