Calgary Flames at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-03-18 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 1 - 2 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 64.2%
CGY: 35.8%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.00
CGY: 2.63
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | NYR | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.833 | 0.968 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs CGY: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | CGY 5 - 1 NYR | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-18 | NYR 1 - 2 CGY | CGY | NYR |
| 2024-11-21 | CGY 3 - 2 NYR | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-02-12 | NYR 2 - 0 CGY | NYR | NYR |
| 2023-10-24 | CGY 1 - 3 NYR | NYR | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:13 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 10:22 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 18:03 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 1 - 2 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.0 - 2.6