Calgary Flames at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 68.1%

CGY: 31.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.27

CGY: 2.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NYR at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	12	0.71
1	CGY	18	1.15
2	NYR	8	0.30
2	CGY	14	0.96
3	NYR	15	0.80
3	CGY	14	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.4