New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 56.7%

NYI: 43.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.98

NYI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	38	34	4	89.5%	3.35	3	-0.65
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	19	2	90.5%	1.98	1	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PIT at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	NYI
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.62
1	NYI	17	0	0.66
2	PIT	15	1	0.79
2	NYI	16	0	0.77
3	PIT	12	0	0.56
3	NYI	19	3	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0