New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 51.6%

NYI: 48.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.05

NYI: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.62
1	NYI	17	0	0.66
2	PIT	15	1	0.79
2	NYI	16	0	0.77
3	PIT	12	0	0.56
3	NYI	19	3	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1