Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

DAL: 59.2%

ANA: 40.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.30

ANA: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	22	3	88.0%	3.59	2	0.59
ANA	Lukas Dostal	31	27	4	87.1%	3.46	1	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DAL at home vs ANA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	ANA 3 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA
2025-12-19	ANA 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	ANA
2025-11-06	DAL 5 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-03-18	DAL 4 - 3 ANA	DAL	DAL
2025-02-04	ANA 2 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.66
1	ANA	4	0	0.26
2	DAL	25	1	1.77
2	ANA	21	2	2.37
3	DAL	9	0	0.72
3	ANA	12	0	0.78
4	DAL	3	0	0.32
4	ANA	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6