Utah Hockey Club at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-18 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 7 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

EDM: 52.2%

UTA: 47.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.31

UTA: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	30	29	1	96.7%	2.26	0	1.26
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	43	36	7	83.7%	5.22	7	-1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • EDM at home vs UTA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	UTA 6 - 5 EDM	UTA	EDM
2026-03-24	UTA 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-28	EDM 6 - 3 UTA	EDM	EDM
2025-03-18	EDM 7 - 1 UTA	EDM	EDM
2024-12-31	EDM 4 - 1 UTA	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	19	1	1.38
1	UTA	12	0	0.62
2	EDM	20	6	2.44
2	UTA	10	0	0.58
3	EDM	20	0	1.40
3	UTA	16	0	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 7 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9