Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 50.6%

COL: 49.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.28

COL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	33	28	5	84.8%	2.55	1	-2.45
COL	Scott Wedgewood	16	15	1	93.8%	1.92	1	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	1	0.89
1	COL	18	1	1.02
2	OTT	7	0	0.15
2	COL	19	0	1.14
3	OTT	12	0	0.87
3	COL	9	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1