Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 58.7%

CGY: 41.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.30

CGY: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	28	23	5	82.1%	3.34	2	-1.66
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	26	3	89.7%	3.24	2	0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • NJD at home vs CGY: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	NJD 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2026-01-19	CGY 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	CGY
2025-03-20	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD
2024-11-01	CGY 3 - 0 NJD	CGY	NJD
2024-02-08	NJD 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	11	0	0.92
1	CGY	13	0	0.66
2	NJD	22	2	1.99
2	CGY	18	1	0.90
3	NJD	6	0	0.34
3	CGY	20	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8