Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-03-20 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 61.0%
TOR: 39.0%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.15
TOR: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 26%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | NYR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.892 | 0.879 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TOR: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | TOR 4 - 3 NYR | TOR | NYR |
| 2026-03-05 | NYR 6 - 2 TOR | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-10-16 | TOR 2 - 1 NYR | TOR | NYR |
| 2025-03-20 | NYR 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | NYR |
| 2025-02-28 | NYR 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:30 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:12 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:50 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 01:22 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:16 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 14:26 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:25 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.