Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 62.3%

TOR: 37.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.26

TOR: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	28	24	4	85.7%	2.33	2	-1.67
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	30	27	3	90.0%	2.14	0	-0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.37
1	TOR	17	0	0.64
2	NYR	17	0	0.62
2	TOR	9	1	0.96
3	NYR	14	0	1.14
3	TOR	12	1	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9