Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

WSH: 56.3%

PHI: 43.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.06

PHI: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	7	0	0.41
1	PHI	12	1	0.95
2	WSH	12	0	0.76
2	PHI	10	0	0.45
3	WSH	5	1	0.69
3	PHI	27	3	3.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1