Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

WSH: 58.9%

PHI: 41.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.25

PHI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	29	27	2	93.1%	4.95	4	2.95
PHI	Samuel Ersson	16	13	3	81.2%	1.86	1	-1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	7	0	0.41
1	PHI	12	1	0.95
2	WSH	12	0	0.76
2	PHI	10	0	0.45
3	WSH	5	1	0.69
3	PHI	27	3	3.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1