Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 49.9%

MTL: 50.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.05

MTL: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	3	1.26
1	MTL	19	1	1.56
2	NYI	10	1	0.79
2	MTL	13	1	1.08
3	NYI	11	1	1.13
3	MTL	19	1	1.41
4	NYI	3	0	0.15
4	MTL	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3