Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 49.9%

MTL: 50.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.07

MTL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	41	38	3	92.7%	4.18	3	1.18
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	25	21	4	84.0%	3.32	5	-0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYI at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	3	1.26
1	MTL	19	1	1.56
2	NYI	10	1	0.79
2	MTL	13	1	1.08
3	NYI	11	1	1.13
3	MTL	19	1	1.41
4	NYI	3	0	0.15
4	MTL	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3