Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DAL: 39.9%

TBL: 60.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.98

TBL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.1

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 32%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	04:35	TBL	Goal
2	07:21	TBL	Goal
2	07:58	TBL	Goal
2	13:48	DAL	Goal
5	00:00	DAL	Goal
5	00:00	DAL	Goal
5	00:00	DAL	Goal
5	00:00	DAL	Goal
5	00:00	DAL	Goal

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9