Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DAL: 48.6%

TBL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.29

TBL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	42	37	5	88.1%	5.91	7	0.91
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	24	4	85.7%	4.18	5	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	DAL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	2	0.92
1	TBL	17	2	1.33
2	DAL	10	1	1.05
2	TBL	10	2	1.08
3	DAL	10	0	0.28
3	TBL	18	0	0.67
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	TBL	4	0	0.28
5	DAL	4	2	1.93
5	TBL	4	3	2.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0