Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-20 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 67.8%

WPG: 32.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.60

WPG: 2.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	20	16	4	80.0%	2.81	0	-1.19
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	24	21	3	87.5%	3.15	2	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • EDM at home vs WPG: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	WPG 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	WPG
2025-12-29	WPG 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	WPG
2025-12-06	EDM 6 - 2 WPG	EDM	EDM
2025-04-13	WPG 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-20	EDM 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.55
1	WPG	9	0	0.90
2	EDM	12	1	0.74
2	WPG	15	0	1.05
3	EDM	16	1	1.66
3	WPG	14	0	0.79
4	EDM	2	0	0.20
4	WPG	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.6 - 2.4