Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

PIT: 67.4%

CBJ: 32.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.12

CBJ: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	47	44	3	93.6%	5.09	6	2.09
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	34	28	6	82.4%	3.54	2	-2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PIT at home vs CBJ: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	1	1.17
1	CBJ	21	0	1.20
2	PIT	17	0	0.85
2	CBJ	21	4	2.14
3	PIT	14	1	1.52
3	CBJ	26	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7