Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 48.5%

VAN: 51.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.36

VAN: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	39	36	3	92.3%	3.85	3	0.85
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	12	7	5	58.3%	1.69	1	-3.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYR at home vs VAN: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	NYR 6 - 2 VAN	NYR	NYR
2025-12-16	NYR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-10-28	VAN 0 - 2 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-03-22	NYR 5 - 3 VAN	NYR	VAN
2024-11-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	3	0	0.11
1	VAN	20	2	1.56
2	NYR	12	0	0.33
2	VAN	15	1	1.02
3	NYR	9	1	1.25
3	VAN	19	0	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2