Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions
2025-03-22 • Xcel Energy Center
Minnesota Wild 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MIN: 49.7%
BUF: 50.3%
Expected Goals
MIN: 3.20
BUF: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 28-15-6 | 0.903 SV% | 2.69 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | MIN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.912 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.836 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.895 | — |
| GAA | 2.47 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • MIN at home vs BUF: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | BUF 4 - 5 MIN | MIN | BUF |
| 2025-11-29 | MIN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | MIN |
| 2025-03-22 | MIN 4 - 1 BUF | MIN | BUF |
| 2024-11-27 | BUF 0 - 1 MIN | MIN | BUF |
| 2024-02-17 | MIN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | MIN |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Minnesota Wild 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0
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