Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 6 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 49.7%

TBL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.28

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

TBL

B. Halverson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	27	23	4	85.2%	2.99	3	-1.01
TBL	B. Halverson	25	19	6	76.0%	4.55	6	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • UTA at home vs TBL: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-26	TBL 2 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-11-02	UTA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	UTA
2025-03-27	TBL 8 - 0 UTA	TBL	UTA
2025-03-22	UTA 6 - 4 TBL	UTA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	11	3	1.37
1	TBL	11	2	0.95
2	UTA	8	0	0.64
2	TBL	19	0	1.01
3	UTA	17	3	2.55
3	TBL	16	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 6 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2