Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

MTL: 40.2%

COL: 59.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.32

COL: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	40	34	6	85.0%	6.56	8	0.56
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	31	26	5	83.9%	4.75	3	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	COL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.68
1	COL	20	1	1.50
2	MTL	18	0	1.19
2	COL	14	3	1.56
3	MTL	18	2	1.54
3	COL	15	1	0.78
4	MTL	1	0	0.18
4	COL	9	1	0.99
5	MTL	4	1	1.16
5	COL	4	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.4