Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

VGK: 62.3%

DET: 37.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.68

DET: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	31	28	3	90.3%	2.33	1	-0.67
DET	Cam Talbot	36	30	6	83.3%	3.89	3	-2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs DET: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	VGK
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	1.06
1	DET	19	1	1.03
2	VGK	16	1	1.10
2	DET	14	0	0.90
3	VGK	16	2	1.73
3	DET	15	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.7 - 2.5