Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-03-22 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 49.8%

BOS: 50.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.02

BOS: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	23	22	1	95.7%	1.78	0	0.78
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	21	18	3	85.7%	3.49	4	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs BOS: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	SJS 3 - 6 BOS	BOS	BOS
2026-03-12	BOS 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	BOS
2025-11-23	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	SJS
2025-03-22	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	BOS
2025-01-20	BOS 6 - 3 SJS	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.34
1	BOS	13	0	0.51
2	SJS	11	1	1.05
2	BOS	10	0	0.71
3	SJS	10	3	2.10
3	BOS	14	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0