Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-03-23 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 66.2%

BUF: 33.8%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.27

BUF: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	BUF
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	17	2	1.16
1	BUF	7	0	0.17
2	WPG	19	1	1.29
2	BUF	7	0	0.19
3	WPG	21	0	1.47
3	BUF	10	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1