Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-03-23 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 66.7%

BUF: 33.3%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.59

BUF: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	17	12	5	70.6%	1.78	1	-3.22
BUF	James Reimer	36	33	3	91.7%	3.92	3	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WPG at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	WPG
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	17	2	1.16
1	BUF	7	0	0.17
2	WPG	19	1	1.29
2	BUF	7	0	0.19
3	WPG	21	0	1.47
3	BUF	10	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0