Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-03-23 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

FLA: 57.2%

PIT: 42.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.78

PIT: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 39%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	30	27	3	90.0%	2.33	0	-0.67
PIT	Tristan Jarry	33	29	4	87.9%	4.17	4	0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • FLA at home vs PIT: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	10	0	0.47
1	PIT	23	0	1.01
2	FLA	20	1	1.17
2	PIT	14	0	0.65
3	FLA	22	1	1.25
3	PIT	5	0	0.19
4	FLA	3	1	0.37
4	PIT	2	0	0.23
5	FLA	3	1	0.92
5	PIT	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.8 - 3.2