Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-23 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

VGK: 71.7%

TBL: 28.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.88

TBL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	3	1.93
1	TBL	20	0	1.16
2	VGK	11	0	0.85
2	TBL	21	2	1.66
3	VGK	15	2	2.32
3	TBL	15	1	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8