Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-03-23 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 50.2%
TBL: 49.8%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.46
TBL: 2.44
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 42%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | VGK | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.922 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | VGK 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-10-26 | TBL 2 - 1 VGK | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-03-23 | VGK 4 - 2 TBL | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-10-17 | TBL 4 - 3 VGK | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-19 | VGK 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:02 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 13:33 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 19:13 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 17:38 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 17:18 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:55 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.5 - 2.4
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