Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-24 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 57.7%

CBJ: 42.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.22

CBJ: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	28	4	87.5%	3.36	1	-0.64
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	34	31	3	91.2%	3.07	1	0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • NYI at home vs CBJ: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	NYI 1 - 0 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2026-02-28	CBJ 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	CBJ
2025-12-28	CBJ 4 - 2 NYI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-02	NYI 3 - 2 CBJ	NYI	NYI
2025-04-17	CBJ 6 - 1 NYI	CBJ	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	22	0	1.55
1	CBJ	8	0	0.72
2	NYI	13	0	0.66
2	CBJ	13	0	0.37
3	NYI	6	0	0.14
3	CBJ	25	0	1.13
4	NYI	3	1	0.53
4	CBJ	4	0	0.28
5	NYI	2	0	0.20
5	CBJ	2	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0