Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

BUF: 51.4%

OTT: 48.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.17

OTT: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	James Reimer	32	30	2	93.8%	3.07	2	1.07
OTT	Anton Forsberg	24	21	3	87.5%	1.42	0	-1.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • BUF at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.56
1	OTT	18	0	0.95
2	BUF	10	0	0.33
2	OTT	12	1	0.86
3	BUF	7	0	0.54
3	OTT	24	1	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7