Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.9%

OTT: 50.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.08

OTT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • BUF at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.56
1	OTT	18	0	0.95
2	BUF	10	0	0.33
2	OTT	12	1	0.86
3	BUF	7	0	0.54
3	OTT	24	1	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0