Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

TBL: 57.6%

PIT: 42.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.73

PIT: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	15	14	1	93.3%	1.06	0	0.06
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	21	6	77.8%	3.21	3	-2.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	2	1.67
1	PIT	8	0	0.39
2	TBL	15	1	0.77
2	PIT	6	0	0.19
3	TBL	11	0	0.76
3	PIT	12	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7