Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-25 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 55.6%
PIT: 44.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.69
PIT: 2.83
Total Goals
Median: 7.3
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 60%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.922 | 0.844 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | TBL 6 - 3 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-13 | PIT 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2025-12-04 | TBL 3 - 4 PIT | PIT | TBL |
| 2025-03-25 | TBL 6 - 1 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-12 | PIT 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:13 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:30 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 16:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:15 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.7 - 2.8
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.